ASX 200 anticipated to open lower on June 1st despite positive Wall Street lead

The Australian share market is poised for a subdued start to the winter trading period, with the S&P/ASX 200 index forecast to open 13 points, or 0.15%, lower on Monday, June 1, 2026. This expected decline comes despite a resilient performance on Wall Street at the end of last week, as local investors weigh a significant downturn in global energy markets and shift their focus toward domestic macroeconomic triggers scheduled for later in the month.

On Friday, May 29, 2026, the S&P/ASX 200 Index finished the previous week on a high note, closing up 1.6% to end at 8,731.7 points. However, the positive momentum from that session and a strong finish in New York may not carry over to the local opening, as indicated by a dip in SPI futures. This potential soft start suggests a cautious approach from market participants as they navigate domestic monetary policy expectations and fluctuating commodity prices.

Wall Street Momentum Fails to Lift Local Outlook

The expected soft opening for Australian shares stands in contrast to the strong performance observed on Wall Street during the final session of May. On Friday, May 29, 2026, major United States indices finished higher, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose by 0.7%. The broader S&P 500 increased by 0.2%, securing its seventh consecutive daily gain and its ninth straight winning week, representing its longest such positive streak since June 2023. Additionally, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2%.

Despite these positive international leads, Australian SPI futures pointed to a negative start for the S&P/ASX 200 on Monday morning. This divergence highlights how local factors, including specific sector weightings and regional macroeconomic concerns, can disconnect domestic market sentiment from broader international trends. Investors are looking past the strong global lead to focus on domestic fiscal conditions and regional trade balances.

Commodity Price Shifts and Energy Sector Pressures

A primary driver of the cautious sentiment is the recent volatility in global commodity markets, particularly the steep decline in oil prices on Friday, May 29, 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 1.75% to settle at US$87.36 a barrel, while Brent crude oil declined 1.7% to finish at US$91.12 a barrel. The drop in Brent crude prices capped off a highly volatile period, marking its largest monthly loss in six years. This downward trend is expected to place immediate pressure on major ASX-listed energy companies at the opening of trade.